2025.12.1810:41:49UTC+00Wheat Futures Hover Around 2-Month Lows

Wheat futures have fallen below $5.10 per bushel, approaching their lowest level since October 22, largely due to optimistic supply forecasts and a growing anticipation of a ceasefire in Ukraine. In its December WASDE report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) anticipated an increase in global wheat supplies by 7.5 million tons, reaching a total of 1,097.8 million tons. This forecast is fueled by increased production estimates from significant exporters such as Argentina and Australia. Notably, Argentina's 2025/26 wheat output is projected to reach a record high of 25.5 million tons, while Australia is expecting its third-largest harvest on record this season. In the European Union, production has bounced back following last season's poor yields, and Russia has seen increased output due to higher yields. The downward trend in prices is further supported by policy changes, with Russia abolishing its wheat export tax and Argentina cutting export duties on key agricultural products. On the consumption side, the USDA has raised its global wheat consumption forecast for 2025/26 by 4.1 million tons, bringing the total to 823.0 million tons.